How LoopWeave works

Overview

LoopWeave computes a library of technical and fundamental indicators across a universe of US-listed equities, every trading day, over decades of price history. Three principles govern all of it:

• Point-in-time. Every signal is computed only from data that existed on its date — no lookahead. Forward-return statistics then measure what actually happened afterward.
• Full history. Detectors run over a symbol's entire available history, including names that later delisted, so win rates are not biased toward survivors.
• Published, not hand-picked. The logic below is the logic that runs. Where a number is a modeling choice, we say so.

Metrics & conventions

• Scale. Returns, margins, and win rates are stored as decimal fractions (a 5% return is 0.05) and multiplied by 100 only when displayed.
• Horizons. Forward performance is measured at a fixed set of horizons — 1, 5, 20, 60, and 120 trading days after a signal fires.
• Direction. Each indicator is bullish (a long setup) or bearish (a short setup). Short returns are oriented so that a positive number always means the trade worked — a bearish signal "wins" when price falls.
• Win rate & confidence. A win rate is the share of past instances that closed profitably at a given horizon, reported with a 95% confidence interval; thin samples are flagged rather than trusted.

Data modifications

Raw vendor data is never used as-is — external feeds carry errors, and faithfully converting a bad value still leaves a bad value. Before any indicator runs we:

• Normalize and sanity-clip. Percent fields are converted to decimals, and values outside the physically possible range for that field (an ownership stake above 100%, say) are dropped rather than charted.
• Keep delisted names. Symbols that stopped trading are retained with their final history and marked delisted, so they still count in backtests.
• Purge corrupt history. A handful of symbols with irreparably broken price history are excluded permanently so a data refresh cannot silently re-add them.
• De-duplicate. Repeated vendor rows (same symbol, same date/series) are collapsed to one.

Signals

Signals are point-in-time trigger events — a moving-average cross, an oscillator extreme, a candlestick reversal. Each links to its live page with win rates and forward-return curves.

• 3 White Soldiersbullish

  Strong bullish continuation: three consecutive long up candles with higher closes, indicating sustained buying pressure.

• Bollinger Oversoldbullish

  Bullish mean-reversion: price closes below the lower Bollinger band (20-day average − 2 std dev) for the first time, flagging a stretched-low move that may snap back up.

• Breakout Abovebullish

  Bullish breakout: price closes above a recent resistance level, suggesting buyers have taken control.

• Bullish Engulfingbullish

  Bullish reversal pattern: a large up candle completely engulfs the prior down candle, signaling a shift toward buyers.

• Golden Crossbullish

  Bullish trend signal: the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, suggesting longer-term upward momentum.

• Hammerbullish

  Bullish reversal candle after a downtrend: a small body with a long lower wick, hinting buyers stepped in below.

• Inverted Hammerbullish

  Bullish reversal candle after a downtrend: a small body with a long upper wick, hinting buyers tested higher prices.

• MACD Crossover (Bull)bullish

  Bullish momentum shift: the MACD line crosses above its signal line. Note: signals fire one bar after the visible cross to confirm the move held — markers and stats anchor to that confirmation bar.

• Morning Starbullish

  Three-candle bullish reversal: a down candle, a small indecisive candle, and a strong up candle marking a potential bottom.

• RSI Oversoldbullish

  Bullish mean-reversion: RSI drops into oversold (<30) territory for two consecutive bars, flagging a washed-out move that may snap back up.

• SMA200 Oversoldbullish

  Bullish mean-reversion: price closes below its 200-day simple moving average for the first time, flagging a dip below the most widely-watched long-term trend line that may snap back up.

• SMA50 Oversoldbullish

  Bullish mean-reversion: price closes below its 50-day simple moving average for the first time, flagging a dip below the medium-term trend line that may snap back up.

• 3 Black Crowsbearish

  Strong bearish continuation: three consecutive long down candles with lower closes, indicating sustained selling pressure.

• Bearish Engulfingbearish

  Bearish reversal pattern: a large down candle completely engulfs the prior up candle, signaling a shift toward sellers.

• Bollinger Overboughtbearish

  Bearish mean-reversion: price closes above the upper Bollinger band (20-day average + 2 std dev) for the first time, flagging a stretched-high move that may fade.

• Breakout Belowbearish

  Bearish breakdown: price closes below a recent support level, suggesting sellers have taken control.

• Death Crossbearish

  Bearish trend signal: the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, suggesting longer-term downward momentum.

• Evening Starbearish

  Three-candle bearish reversal: an up candle, a small indecisive candle, and a strong down candle marking a potential top.

• MACD Crossover (Bear)bearish

  Bearish momentum shift: the MACD line crosses below its signal line. Note: signals fire one bar after the visible cross to confirm the move held — markers and stats anchor to that confirmation bar.

• RSI Overboughtbearish

  Bearish mean-reversion: RSI climbs into overbought (>70) territory for two consecutive bars, flagging an overheated move that may fade.

• Shooting Starbearish

  Bearish reversal candle after an uptrend: a small body with a long upper wick, suggesting buyers failed to hold highs.

• Volume Spikeneutral

  Unusual activity: trading volume jumps well above its recent average, indicating heightened interest that often precedes price moves.

Chart patterns

Patterns are multi-bar geometric formations fitted to swing highs and lows and confirmed on a breakout or breakdown.

• Ascending Channelbullish

  Bullish continuation: price trends higher between two parallel rising lines, making higher highs and higher lows within the channel.

• Ascending Trianglebullish

  Bullish continuation: flat resistance overhead with rising lows squeezing price toward it — a breakout above the flat top completes the pattern.

• Bull Flagbullish

  Bullish continuation: a sharp rally (the pole) pauses in a small downward-drifting channel (the flag), then resumes higher on the breakout.

• Bull Pennantbullish

  Bullish continuation: a sharp rally pauses in a small converging triangle (the pennant), then resumes higher on the breakout.

• Bullish Rectanglebullish

  Bullish continuation: price consolidates sideways between horizontal support and resistance after a rally, then breaks out through resistance.

• Double Bottombullish

  Bullish reversal: two distinct lows at roughly the same level (a W shape); confirmed when price breaks above the neckline between them.

• Falling Wedgebullish

  Bullish reversal: price declines inside two converging down-sloping lines as momentum fades — resolved by a breakout above the upper line.

• Rounding Bottombullish

  Bullish reversal: a slow saucer-shaped base where selling gradually gives way to buying, curving from decline to advance.

• Triple Bottombullish

  Bullish reversal: three distinct lows at roughly the same support level; confirmed when price breaks above the neckline.

• Bear Flagbearish

  Bearish continuation: a sharp decline (the pole) pauses in a small upward-drifting channel (the flag), then resumes lower on the breakdown.

• Bear Pennantbearish

  Bearish continuation: a sharp decline pauses in a small converging triangle (the pennant), then resumes lower on the breakdown.

• Bearish Rectanglebearish

  Bearish continuation: price consolidates sideways between horizontal support and resistance after a decline, then breaks down through support.

• Broadeningbearish

  Volatility expansion: successively higher highs and lower lows between two diverging lines — an unstable, widening range.

• Descending Channelbearish

  Bearish continuation: price trends lower between two parallel falling lines, making lower highs and lower lows within the channel.

• Descending Trianglebearish

  Bearish continuation: flat support underneath with falling highs pressing price into it — a breakdown below the flat bottom completes the pattern.

• Double Topbearish

  Bearish reversal: two distinct highs at roughly the same level (an M shape); confirmed when price breaks below the neckline between them.

• Head and Shouldersbearish

  Bearish reversal: three peaks with the middle (head) tallest; confirmed when price breaks below the neckline joining the two troughs.

• Rising Wedgebearish

  Bearish reversal: price climbs inside two converging up-sloping lines as momentum fades — resolved by a breakdown below the lower line.

• Triple Topbearish

  Bearish reversal: three distinct highs at roughly the same resistance level; confirmed when price breaks below the neckline.

Trendlines & levels

We fit trendlines and horizontal support/resistance to a symbol's confirmed swing pivots, each carrying a confidence score from how many times price has respected it. Events fire when price breaks a line, holds at it, or approaches it (a predictive setup that fires before the line resolves).

• Trendline Approach (Bull)bullish

  Price coming down to a high-confidence support trendline. Predictive — fires before the line resolves. Most likely outcome is a bounce; a breakdown would invalidate the setup.

• Trendline Break (Bull)bullish

  Resistance trendline cleared upward: a confirmed down-sloping line through prior swing highs has been broken to the upside, suggesting buyers have taken control.

• Trendline Hold (Bull)bullish

  Support trendline tested and held: price tagged a confirmed up-sloping support line and bounced back up without breaking it — line is still in force.

• Trendline Approach (Bear)bearish

  Price climbing into a high-confidence resistance trendline. Predictive — fires before the line resolves. Most likely outcome is rejection; a breakout would invalidate the setup.

• Trendline Break (Bear)bearish

  Support trendline cleared downward: a confirmed up-sloping line through prior swing lows has been broken to the downside, suggesting sellers have taken control.

• Trendline Hold (Bear)bearish

  Resistance trendline tested and rejected: price tagged a confirmed down-sloping resistance line and reversed lower without breaking it — line is still in force.

Valuation & growth

Beyond price action, each symbol carries a valuation view built from its fundamentals: price rebased against revenue and earnings, each valuation multiple (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) charted against its own history and its sector median, margins, and fitted growth rates.

Because vendor fundamentals can be noisy, we cross-check them. The headline P/E comes from our data provider; we also compute our own from the last four reported quarters (price ÷ trailing-12-month EPS) and flag any symbol where the two disagree materially, or where a positive profit is propped up by one-off, non-operating items. See the P/E entry in the glossary.

Signal stacks

A stack is a cluster of signals that fired together on the same symbol and direction within a short window, whose combination has historically beaten the base win rate. Rather than hand-picking combinations, we let the data surface which ones carry a real, statistically-corrected edge.

The full write-up — anchors, frequent-itemset mining, significance testing, and how we compare to a benchmark — lives on the stacks methodology page.

Glossary

Forward return

Price change over a fixed horizon (1/5/20/60/120 trading days) after a signal fires — the basis for every win rate.

Win rate & confidence interval

Share of past instances that closed profitably at a horizon, with a 95% interval showing how certain that estimate is. Narrower is more reliable; small samples are flagged.

P/E: reported vs. trailing

The headline P/E is supplied by our data provider and can be built on forward or "adjusted" earnings. We also compute a trailing-twelve-month P/E from actual reported earnings; when the two diverge by more than 25%, or when earnings are propped up by one-off items, the value is marked with a caveat.

Survivorship

Including delisted companies in history so results are not flattered by looking only at names that survived.

Decimal scale

Every rate is stored as a fraction (0.05 = 5%) and scaled to a percentage only at display time.